Three providers, three different answers on 2027 pay budgets
On the same day, WTW projected average 2027 US salary increase budgets of 3.4 percent against a 3.5 percent actual for 2026, from 34,024 responses across 156 countries, while WorldatWork projected a mean of 3.6 percent, level with 2026, from 1,799 organisations. Korn Ferry, publishing on 30 July across 5,512 organisations, reported no change or a slight decrease for most major markets but did not publish figures on its public page. Separately, Mercer's April survey of 756 employers found 2026 merit actually paid 3.1 percent against 3.2 percent projected, while employers planned salary structure movement of only 2.6 percent.
Why it mattersThe 2027 number you take to a board depends on which provider you cite, and 0.2 points on a large payroll is a real budget line, so name the source rather than quoting "the market". WorldatWork found means above medians in 20 of 24 countries, which makes the median the safer planning input. The sharper story is the gap between merit at around 3.1 percent and structure movement at 2.6 percent: that pushes incumbents up through their ranges every year and builds compression against midpoints and against new hire rates, which resurfaces later as unbudgeted market adjustments. WTW's finding that 36 percent of employers are hiring into higher ranges and 32 percent are lifting starting ranges is the same problem seen from the other end.
Sources: WTW, WorldatWork, Korn Ferry and Mercer, reported by WorldatWork.